Judge Blocks Minnesota Prediction-Market Ban — Win for Kalshi and Polymarket

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Headline: Federal judge blocks Minnesota’s prediction‑market ban — a win for Kalshi and Polymarket, but the fight isn’t over

A federal judge has temporarily stopped Minnesota from enforcing its new law that would criminalize many prediction markets — a major early victory for CFTC‑registered platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US, but one that leaves several important questions unresolved.

What happened
- On July 27 U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez issued a preliminary injunction preventing Minnesota from applying its new prediction‑market statute to Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)‑registered designated contract markets while three related lawsuits proceed. The injunction was still in effect on Aug. 2 — one day after the statute was due to take effect.
- The state law would have made it a felony to create, operate or intentionally support covered prediction markets and would reach certain data providers, payment services and ads.

Why the court intervened
- Menendez concluded the plaintiffs (the CFTC, Kalshi and Polymarket US) were likely to prevail on at least part of a federal preemption claim. She found the CFTC’s exclusive jurisdiction probably covers a “considerable swath” of the event contracts offered by the platforms because many may qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act.
- At the same time, Menendez said the platforms had not proven that every listed contract meets the federal swap definition. That leaves open the possibility that a future, narrower injunction—or the court’s final ruling—could protect fewer products than the current order.

Responses from the parties
- Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison has framed prediction markets as “gambling, plain and simple.” That remains the state’s position but is not a court finding.
- Kalshi responded that “States cannot ban things that they don’t have jurisdiction over,” a legal view it will press in court.

Limits of the ruling
- The injunction only bars enforcement of Minnesota’s new prediction‑market law as applied to CFTC‑registered markets. It does not resolve whether older state gambling statutes can be used against individual sports or entertainment contracts. Minnesota’s Department of Public Safety has not announced whether it considers the platforms illegal under existing laws or plans separate enforcement.
- The district court could ultimately draw distinctions between contracts with real financial or economic consequences and those that more closely resemble ordinary wagers.

State reaction and safeguards
- One day after the ruling, Governor Tim Walz issued Executive Order 26‑09. It bans covered state employees — including the governor, lieutenant governor and agency commissioners — from using nonpublic or confidential government information to trade prediction‑market contracts for private benefit. The order excludes the legislature, courts, some independent elected officials and several boards; it takes effect 15 days after publication and filing.

Enforcement and market integrity examples
- The CFTC continues to police manipulative conduct in event markets. On July 31 the agency ordered former Rep. George Santos to disgorge $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 penalty and accept a three‑year trading ban after finding he traded on a State of the Union event contract while making false public statements that moved prices to his advantage.
- Kalshi has also taken internal steps: employer disclosures, risk scoring and expanded surveillance for higher‑risk contracts. The company reported blocking more than 100 potential insider trades and making 20 law‑enforcement referrals in Q1 2026 (company‑reported figures).

Regulatory and political implications
- The Minnesota decision could bolster pro‑crypto lawmakers who argue for a single federal framework for national financial markets. Supporters of the CLARITY Act and similar proposals are pushing for a larger CFTC role in digital asset oversight; the bill’s backers released updated market‑structure text on July 22 after the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May.
- But critics cite staffing and enforcement concerns: a July 21 Senate letter asked the Government Accountability Office to review a reported 25% reduction in CFTC staffing and weaker enforcement. Opponents say Congress should not expand the agency’s remit without ensuring it has the resources to supervise both digital assets and fast‑growing event markets.
- The litigation could spill into campaign messaging. While the case doesn’t involve Fairshake or another crypto PAC, those groups’ spending figures — Fairshake reportedly held about $126.97 million in cash at the end of June and spent $74.25 million in the current reporting period — and political ad campaigns (e.g., Protect Progress’s more than $2 million in Michigan’s 13th District) could shape voter debates linking crypto industry support to candidates.

Industry ties and optics
- Kalshi named Donald Trump Jr. a strategic adviser in January 2025; Polymarket later added him to its advisory board after his firm, 1789 Capital, invested. Those confirmed connections do not prove any White House role in the CFTC’s litigation, but they have given critics and some legal commentators, like sports‑law attorney Daniel Wallach, fodder to allege “classic regulatory capture.” That remains an opinion, not a legal conclusion.

Broader legal landscape
- Minnesota is one piece of a larger federal‑state contest. The CFTC has sued several states to defend what it calls exclusive jurisdiction over registered prediction markets, but courts have split: Minnesota’s injunction favored the platforms, while rulings in Wisconsin and Washington allowed state gambling challenges to proceed.
- On July 31 New York sued Kalshi, alleging it operates as unlicensed gambling and seeking injunction, restitution, penalties and forfeiture; Kalshi can contest those claims in court.

What’s next
- The district court’s final decision will determine how broadly federal preemption applies to event markets and which contracts fall under CFTC oversight. Meanwhile, the CFTC’s proposed prediction‑market rule — which would define “gaming,” set public‑interest review factors and create up‑to‑90‑day review windows for certain contracts — completed its public comment period on July 27 and remains pending.

Bottom line
The injunction is a short‑term win for Kalshi and Polymarket and a signal that federal oversight may displace some state bans. But the legal battle will continue in multiple courts, with policy, enforcement capacity and political optics all shaping the ultimate outcome for prediction markets and the broader crypto ecosystem.